BMW Guggenheim Lab 100 Urban Trends →

Well organized document about urban trends. Each trend has a small summary and a link to more information. Check it out!

-Paige Shesterkin

I imagine the built environment to mimic the natural landscape. Suburbs will still exist but the houses built will be surrounded by organically grown landscapes. The transitional area bridging the suburbs and the central city will have buildings similar the one shown in this picture. As building density increases towards the central city, the buildings will incorporate nature in  green roofs and natural lighted offices from large windows. In 2050, the prominence of nature will encourage people to make informed consumer/living decisions. Their decisions, good/bad, have influence on the built and natural environment. By living within nature, people will be inclined to make decisions that protect these environments out of motivation to care for their personal space and surroundings.

High Density/Low Walkability

Mississauga, Ontario, from afar, has the skyline of a major North American city. Upon closer inspection, however, the street-level presents nothing more than a glorified office-park/strip mall. While the city offers high-density living, parking lots and overly-wide thoroughfares are abound, creating a fairly un-walkable environment. Is this the suburb of the future? The suburb of the future must combine high-density living with pedestrian-friendly streetscapes (new urbanist principles). How can new urbanist design be applied in suburban areas that are already developed, such as Mississauga? Can mixed-use zoning be effectively applied in suburban areas that have developed through Euclidian-style zoning for decades?

http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/showthread.php?t=143799

- Matt Lonnerstater

“Conservation Subdivision Ordinances can dictate the layout of proposed development to ensure that open space is preserved by clustering houses together.  The resulting green spaces provide area for recreational activities and act as buffers between neighboring developments.”

Will conservation subdivisions be part of the solution or part of the problem? Will they promote further development where we don’t want it or will they help us protect important spaces where development is inevitable?

-Ashlee

Car Free Zones

Suburbs and Mobility - By 2050, the Complete streets movements will be mainstream planning. Perhaps we will never get rid of the car completely, but I think suburbs will have greater density and more car-free zones. Neighborhoods might have their own car sharing program.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2012/09/06/cardiff-considers-building-uk-s-first-car-free-suburb-91466-31775057/

- Alexandria Stankovich

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Have you considered reverse commuting? Perhaps you like the idea of living in the city, but suburban office parks have the jobs you want. Commuting from the city to work in the suburbs is likely to be far less of a hassle for you than for those who are heading in the opposite direction. Working in the suburbs does not have to mean living there as well.

Consider how far you want your kids to travel to school. The country home of your dreams may mean that Jason must get up earlier to catch the school bus. And what about Samantha’s dance class and the swim team she is currently involved with? If she is able to pick up those activities in the new locale, how much chauffeuring will you have to do?

If you are at or close to retirement age or have chronic health concerns, you might want to be fairly close to a hospital for convenient access to emergency-room services. If you have small children, you’ll want to keep that in mind, too.

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The City or the Suburbs? by Piper Nichole (netplaces)

Last year’s entries (UP540 fall 2011) posted below.

Given the increasingly divided political climate as well as the continuing patterns of privatization and exclusion, perhaps we will see suburbs take on two different trajectories. One type of suburb may take the current residential gated community lifestyle to greater lengths, providing all necessary services and goods within the confines of the community and allowing residents to never leave their comfort zones. In contrast, other suburbs may be more communal, with shared walkable spaces and mixed land uses to allow residents to interact freely and often. 

Emily C

Suburbs blending into nature and each other

Suburbs in 2050: The lines between cities and suburbs will likely get progressively blurrier as new modes of transportation and infill development at a wide variety of densities make it almost impossible to tell where one zone starts and another stops. Lines between the built environment and the natural one will likewise get less definite as the widespread adoption of simple techniques like bioswales and green roofs result in a human landscape which does its best to mimic the natural one. Pre-existing suburban and exurban environments which do not fit into this new paradigm will probably continue to be occupied so long as present highway and mortgage subsidies continue unchanged; once faced with economic conditions, cultural preferences, or simple structural obsolescence (at least one of which is likely to come into play by 2050), many neighborhoods may simply be abandoned and left to be slowly reclaimed by the natural environment which surrounds them.

Above: a Seattle Hope VI project demonstrates an urban environment which looks much more natural than its predecessors. From http://www.moresitephocus.com/search/label/stormwater.

-Daniel

I actually don’t think the suburbs are going to change as rapidly as we believe. Even if people are desiring of more walkable urban spaces, the city environment, etc. it seems that a variety of social, economic, and political factors may inhibit this. Overall, social mobility has decreased, as has the availability of jobs that may entice people to move.

For young people, I see three factors that may keep people in the suburbs even if they want to move: financing, housing values, and aging parents. On the financing side, not only is bank lending harder to come by, but many young adults are saddled with debt that they cannot pay off on current wages. True, these adults may rent in the city for the time being, but I don’t see that as a permanent life-style change. When these adults decide to start having a family I think the temptation will be to return to the suburbs, where financing is a little safer for lenders (and prices on once unattainable homes have fallen to potentially management levels), and where desirable characteristics (such as good schools) are more prevalent. As long as policy continues to tie educational financing with property values, this trend will be hard to buck. Additionally, depending on how our society addresses concerns of the elderly, these young adults may find themselves more in caregiver roles than imagined 5 years ago. This may lead to an incentive to stay close to their parents—or in the ‘burbs.

Overall, I think that the desire of people to move to the urban core may remain high, but I see these factors as placing real-world restrictions on ability to do so.

- Brittany

zoning

As metropolises develop so fast, I believe the suburbs of them will not just be a place for people to live. It is very possible that suburbs will be divided to several areas with different functions and all the functions serve the center city. For example, some suburban areas provide agricultural products, some areas provide industrial products and some areas provide education resources and so on. The city center will act as a commander to distribute and manage all these kinds of resources.

Qi

Suburbs and nature, suburbs and motility

Contrary to the common sense that suburb is more natural friendly; in fact it’s an ecological damage in the current form. Many scientists, economists and planners believe cities are greener places to live because of the higher accessibility and energy efficiency. If in the future climate change and environment degradation do threaten us as severely as scientists claimed, I think suburbs will develop into the form more or less resembling cities, at least have such features as compactness and higher density. To reduce the disastrous effects of auto-dependence people may also increase the walkable, bikable, and transit possibilities for suburbs, and create more human-scale pedestrians than car-scale highways. 

Tianzhe Wang

More ecologically friendly?

Research is currently being done to look at inserting ecosystem services into rural development (“exurbia”)—things like water filtration for nutrient capture and carbon storage. Studies show that if a whole neighborhood has a “green” look to its landscaping, people are more willing to have these innovative, ecologically friendly yards. So…more rain gardens, native plants and prairies?

-Rachel

Suburbs - Present v. Future

What will change? Transportation connections within MEGA-regions (i.e. high-speed rail), in order to create more resilient regional economies (also, increase in T.O.D.).  Income and Education levels will deteriorate in suburban areas, unless affordable housing measures are successfully implemented in urban areas. The model for suburban malls and strip malls will change to more walkable & “downtown-like” mixed-use areas with residential.  Alternative energy sources will help transportation access.

What will resemble 2011? Hyper-consumerism drives commercial aspects of public spaces and brand immersion (i.e. Ads everywhere).  Personal transportation will remain in demand, but will differentiate itself from today’s automobile (i.e. Google experimenting with self-drive cars).  Businesses will still continue to locate in suburban areas unless municipalities regionalize (also adhering to idea that CEOs often locate companies closer to their suburban homes as time passes).

-Taylor Traub

Farming/Permaculture Systems in the Suburbs. 

- Food grown at home. 

- Things will happen organically, not from policy or planning. 

- It’s easier for people in the suburbs to adapt to an energy crisis, compared to those in high density apartments. 

- Big suburban houses will be turned into home offices/workshops/homesteads.

- Suburban streets will become active.